FII Activities (Latest)
Purchase ( Rs Crore ) 2226.00
Sale ( Rs Crore ) 2776.70
Investment ( Rs Crore) -550.70
Investment ($US mm)-136.50
MF Activities (Latest)
Purchase ( Rs Crore ) 564.20
Sale ( Rs Crore ) 545.60
Investment ( Rs Crore) 18.60
FII Activities (Monthly)
Date Purchase ( Rs Crore ) Sale ( Rs Crore ) Investment ( Rs Crore) Investment ($US mm)
May-2008 44506.30 45730.30 -1224.10 -303.50
Apr-2008 61326.90 60256.20 1070.50 300.50
Mar-2008 71159.40 71289.90 -130.40 -32.20
Feb-2008 73776.60 72043.20 1733.30 429.80
Jan-2008 103678.20 116713.90 -13035.70 -3231.60
Dec-2007 85586.40 80007.10 5579.10 1383.00
Nov-2007 17358.30 20027.10 -2668.90 -661.60
MF Activities (Monthly)
Date Purchase ( Rs Crore ) Sale ( Rs Crore ) Investment ( Rs Crore)
May-2008 9,174.30 9,825.80 -651.60
Apr-2008 12,433.20 12,306.90 125.70
Mar-2008 15,495.00 17,433.50 -1,938.60
Feb-2008 16,751.90 16,237.90 513.90
Jan-2008 32,514.20 24,935.50 7,578.70
Dec-2007 19,611.60 16,279.80 3,332.30
Nov-2007 4,506.80 3,257.10 1,249.60
Monday, May 26, 2008
23-May -08 FII & MF Activities
Principle PNB MF declares dividend under FMP Series
The Principle PNB mutual fund has announced the declaration of dividend under dividend option of Principle PNB Fixed Maturity Plan-91 Days-Series XIII. The record date for dividend will be 28 May 2008. The AMC plans to distribute net appreciation in the NAV of dividend option from the date of allotment i.e. 28 February 2008 (after considering the reduction in NAV due to payment of dividend declared on 20 March 2008) will be paid as dividend. The NAV of the scheme was recorded at Rs 10.1898 as on 23 May 2008. Principle PNB Fixed Maturity Plan-91 Days-Series XIII is close-ended debt scheme with an investment objective of building an income-oriented portfolio and providing returns along with regular liquidity to investors.
HDFC MF declares dividend
HDFC Mutual Fund has announced 29 May 2008 as the record date for declaration of dividend under dividend option of both retail and wholesale plan of HDFC Fixed Maturity Plan 367 Days May 2007 under HDFC Fixed Maturity Plans -Series V.
The fund house has decided to distribute 100% of surplus available under its both retail and wholesale plans as on record date. The NAV for the scheme under retail plan was Rs. 10.9441 and that of under wholesale plan was Rs 10.9788 as on 22 May 2008.
HDFC Fixed Maturity Plan 367 Days May 2007 is a close-ended income scheme. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek to generate regular income by investments in debt, money market instruments, and government securities.
26-May-08 Market Close Stats
It was a bad day for the market that saw huge selling pressure. Sensex closed at 16403, down 246 points (provisional) and Nifty at 4885, down 60 points (provisional) from the previous close. The CNX Midcaps index was down 2.31% and BSE Smallcaps index was down by 2.29%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 194 against declines of 1063 on the NSE.
BSE 16348.50 -1.81% -301.14
NSE 4,875.05 -1.47% -71.50
The Asian markets were hit badly while the European markets were trading weak. The Indian market is trading at the day's low. Sensex is trading at 16337, down 312 points and Nifty is at 4872, down 74 points from the previous close. The CNX Midcaps index is down 2.35% and BSE Smallcaps index is down by 2.27%. Banking, FMCG, metals, realty and power stocks have all taken a beating. The market breadth is negative with advances at 181 against declines of 1069 on the NSE
Reliance Power Bonus
Power: All shareholders of the Company's records hold shares as at the end of business hours on June 02, 2008, irrespective of whether such shares were subscribed by the shareholders in the Company's Initial Public Offering (IPO) or such shares were purchased from the secondary market or otherwise after the IPO, shall be eligible to receive the bonus Shares.As approved by the shareholders of the Company, Reliance Power will issue Bonus shares in the ratio of three new equity shares of Rs 10 each for every five existing equity shares of Rs 10 each held, to the public shareholders of the Company. Price adjustment of R Power for bonus shares will be done on 30th May. Source:BSE
DLF & PFC
DLF is stuck near 605.5
anyone can book profit (very small 3.5 rs i know)
otherwise kept sl to cost @602
means we not loose any money
still 2 times more buyer than seller in DLF
seller 127k & buyer 289k
i think PFC will go down lets see
currently there are 3k more buyers in this script
89k seller & 92k buyers
Geojit Financial Services
Geojit Financial Services reported 25.1% rise in net profit of Rs 7.63 crore on a 74.3% increase in sales to Rs 52.35 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007
Stock from this section can move rapidaly anytime
BUT only brave heart ppl can buy this
with extra money only
once buys hold
Mcx Weekly Key Levels
Gold
Bullish Above 12740 Resistance 13155
Bearish Below 12650 Support 12305
Silver
Bullish Above 24600 Resistance 26500
Bearish Below 24345 Support 23940
Crude Oil
Bullish Above 5628 Resistance 5933
Bearish Below 5565 Support 5302
Copper
Bullish Above 352 Resistance 358.5
Bearish Below 350 Support 342
Mcx Updates
Gold & silver rose on weakness in doller
Crude rose on supply concern
Copper rose on expected higher demand
Headlines for the day 26-May-08
Corporate News Headline
Bharti Airtel ended takeover talks with South Africa´s MTN Group after differences surfaced over control of the combined entity. (BS)
IDBI Bank is planning to more acquisition to scale up its pan-India presence while its organic growth plans include the setting up of 200 new branches. (BS)
Reliance Communications is planning to start discussions for a possible tie up with the South African telecom entity, MTN Group. (ET)
Economic and Political Headline
The WPI based inflation for the week ended May 10, 2008 stood at 7.82% as compared to 7.83% for the previous week. (BS)
India´s government would waive Rs. 716.8 bn of agricultural loans, more than earlier announced, to help farmers pare debt. (Bloomberg)
The UK GDP rose 0.4% in March after the higher credit costs hurt construction and business services slowed. (Bloomberg)
MCX Spot Open 26-May-08
SPOT/open
GOLD-924.30
SILVER-18.18
CRUDE-131.68
NOW:-
GOLD-927.15
SILVER-18 .28
CRUDE-132.59
EUR-1.5766
GBP-1.9822
JPY-103.30
Nifty 26-May-08
Nifty fut CMP4942
If Nifty Fut Will Not Break 4890 With Volumes in 1st Hour of Trading Then We Can Expect Short Covering In Last Session.
If Nifty Fut Sustain Below 4890 Then 4850-4825.
Reliance Communications Ltd
Reliance Communications Ltd Is in Talks To Combine With South African Mobile Phone Company MTN Group Ltd..
26-May-08 - Nifty - Fibonacci Daily Projection
Fibonacci Daily Projection
Nifty Spot
Up Resistance-4969-4986-5000-5014-5031-5059-5086-5104-5118-5132-5149-5177-5250
Down Support-5031-5014-5000-4986-4969-4941-4914-4896-4882-4868-4851-4823-4750
Nifty Future
Up Resistance-4959-4976-4990-5003-5020-5047-5073-5091-5105-5118-5135-5162-5233
Down Support-5020-5003-4990-4976-4959-4932-4906-4888-4875-4861-4844-4817-4746
Nifty 26-May-08
Nifty Spot
Resistance 5040
Support 4905
Buy Above 5031
Sell Below 4969
Nifty Future
Resistance 5032
Support 4900
Buy Above 5020
Sell Below 4959
TYPES OF PPL IN STK MKTS
TYPES OF PPL IN STK MKTS:
TA = Technical analysts who are either daytradrers, swing traders, they play for the shortterm...... these guys are poor have little capital, have high BP and their staple diet is adrenalin.
FA = Fundamental analysts who invest for the long term... the dream guys... they live in the world of fantasies....they are too stubborn adn terribly convinced and take the skies, the democracy, the judiciary, and smooth function of exchanges, currency rates and so on for granted.... the genuine ones are holidaying in Florida even during massive sell offs like we had on friday..the half baked ones are busy fighting the Technical analysts and know that most technical analysts are liars that they never foresaw any technical bounce they claimed to have gauged and they never played the technical rallies they boast about. LOL
(Above definitions r courtesy of radhika_nandlal)
SA = Skeptical Analysts:Does a lot of research and does no action. They dont know whether they shud believe TA or FA.When FA is good they wait for TA and when TA is good one, Bad result will come....and then they start blaming everyone on MMB,i.e. the Company,its Mgmt,Operators,Finance Minster,Commerce Minister,.....and finally his broker for his hefty brokerage he charged..ROTFL...(with Spl inputs frm yembeee)
MA = MMB Addicts..these very sticky ppl,stickier than poor frogs legs,they stick to MMB as FEVICOL has been invented by them..they r more loyal to the company,than to their family,they dont care abt their family,their kids,...they here virutally on every boards 24X7..till they r forcibly chased away by other co-boarders for their Xtreme views.....LOL...
Last but not Least forgotton, EVERGREEN type:
HA = Humour agents are ppl who are hyper active jump boards to boards in search of elusive nirvana (bearish/bullish views) ,for the sake of opposing the other person's view(right or wrong),they r here for eternal...these guys have good sense of humour...high with dose of adrenalin in their (beer=Men) bellies...they command high PE value ratio than their poor co-boarders....(PE=Pure Entertainment Value)..without these ppl's contribution,MMB wud resemble like the streets of KABUL & BAGDAD....ROTFL...
NEW DEFINITIONS
DA = Dumb-founded Analyst,Who are very very CONFUSED & dont know what to do , whether to sell OR buy OR hold OR jump...??u can find them every(Day)where on MMB,These are that kinda of people who stand on the 6-Way CROSSING and dont know whether to go right or left or straight or diagonal.....make confuse others also...they r worse than our Absent-minded college Proffessor,where students atleast know that he is trying to tell something... LOL(Spl Thanks to Pranky)
OA = Ostrich Analyst,these ppl r,wo give excellent targets for operators operated momentum stks,wen the stk backfires..they gonna b NOWHERE to seen or heard...they r better magicians than legendary DAVID BLAINE,wo atleast comes back after his magic trick...LOL....
SA = Said Analyst,wo always boast of predictions two months in advance,by chance suddenly mkts go opposite...then they scream from rooftops abt their DOOMED (already expired)predictions.(LOL)...
TDA = TELEDATA Analyst,is one who knows that TD should be bought and sold at 62 & 72 only respectively,and knows that it shud not b kept for more than 72 rupees..but he/she refers 24 indicators before buying TD at 62.10 rupees and selling at 71.90 rupees..LOL....(Thank you GOOGOLbhai for inspiration)....LOL..
MBA = Market Bet(spread)sheet Analyst,r ppl wo trade the market with their unusual spreadsheet skills...they can survive the onslaught of SHARK's n BIG FISH's such as Cartels,Operators,Finance minister 2 days in advance..finding them is very easy,u will find them top 20 in popular boarders category by virtue of their TRINAnalysis..u find all information regarding marketconditions(Local and Global) which is useless to u...(Spl Thanks To Ramge for inspiration)...LOL
LATEST DEFINITIONS
ACA = Aastha Channel Analysts,r ppl who have tremendous knowledge abt Co's,its Mgt's,Global Economy....they give u detailed analysis which is useless,unless u r going apply for DIRECTORSHIP of that company..they know Company better than its Managing Director....LOL(Spl Thanks To Ramge for inspiration)
BEST ONES
Investor = A TRADER who finds him/herself on the WRONG side of the market can simply decide to hold onto the stock,UNLESS hoping that it will stage a comeback at some point in the FUTURE.This is how many traders stop being traders and become INVESTORS...LOL....(with Spl inputs frm yembeee)
Trader = Are the ppl,Who once tasted the SACCHARINE (Trading),then they forget about SUGAR(Investing)...Now they r like an ANT who is trapped in sugar tin...they dont know whether to try to come out or stay inside....LOL(Spl Thanks To Yembeee)
Top Five Reasons For A Stock Slide
Conventional wisdom dictates that when a company beats Street's earnings estimates for a given quarter, its stock price should rise. But that's not always the case. In many instances, a stock's share price declines after better-than-expected earnings are reported.
Investors need to know that there is a reason for the decline in share price. It just might not be an obvious reason.
1. Major Shareholder Selling(NO XAMPLES HERE)
Some institutional shareholders set a target to sell their stock at a given price or if a certain event transpires. The end result is that the supply of shares available for sale (after the event transpires) usually depresses the share price.
2. Research Notes(Where are the Auditors?)
Sometimes a sell-side analyst will put out a (negative) research note on the company either just before or just after earnings are released. This report (even if it is only slightly negative in nature) can affect the way that firm's clients think, especially those that are more short-term oriented.
3. Not Meeting the Street estimate(obiously not by 300 percent y-o-y,even if rupee appreciate 20pc from present)
Oftentimes, a company will beat the average Street estimate, but fail to meet or beat the whisper number and, as a result, its stock price falls.
4. Faulty Numbers(WHO CARES ABT NUMBERS HERE!!)
Sometimes, there is a fundamental reason for a stock to fall after earnings are announced. For eg, perhaps the company's gross margins have fallen dramatically from last quarter, or
The company may also be spending too much money to pay for a new product launch.(who cares for expensive product launches, well i have two BIG ready-made client for my product)
5. Future Guidance
Most public companies conduct a conference call after earnings are released.
In this call, management may make forecasts or provide other guidance about the future prospects for the company.
Investors need to remember that any guidance that is contradictory to what the investment community is expecting can have a material impact on the price of the stock.
Summary
There is always a tangible reason behind the downward movement in a given share price after earnings are released,but it's up to the investor to play the role of detective and to try to determine what that reason is.
Those who are able to decipher the logic behind (and the source of) such market movements may be richly rewarded.
UNWRITTEN RULES OF STOCK MARKET:
UNWRITTEN RULES OF STOCK MARKET:
Rule number 1: All sharp price movements -whether up or down- are the result of one or more (usually a group of) professionals manipulating the share price.
Rule number 2: If the market manipulator wants to distribute (dump) his shares, he will start a good news promotional campaign.
Rule number 3: As soon as the market manipulator has completed his distribution (dumping) of shares, he will start a bad news or no news campaign.
Rule number 4: Any stock that trades huge volume at higher prices signals the distribution phase.
Rule number 5: The market manipulator will always try to get you to buy at the highest, and sell at the lowest price Possible.
Rule number 6: If this is a real deal, then you are likely to be the last person to be notified or will be driven out at the lower prices.
Rule number 7: Conversely, you will often be the last to know when this deal shows signs of failure.
Rule number 8: The market manipulator will compel you into the stock so that you drive up its shares price.
Rule number 9: The market manipulator is well aware of the emotions you are experiencing during a run up and a collapse and will play your emotions like a piano.
Final rule: A new batch of suckers are born with every new play.
Dreadful Stocks to Avoid
Dreadful Stocks to Avoid
1. Business that bet.
In some industries, companies occasionally have to make critically important decisions. If the company makes the wrong choice, it will be dealt a crippling blow.
2. Businesses dependent on research
Innovative companies are required to do research simply to maintain their competitive position. And if the research dries up, the company suffers.
3. Debt-burdened companies
During the GOOD times,large amounts of debt means cash, that could be put toward growing the business,instead of rewarding shareholders,cash is used to servicing the debt.In a crisis, debt greatly limits a company's options and can sometimes lead to bankruptcy.
4. Companies with questionable management(NO EXAMPLES R NEEDED HERE)
Management has incredible power. If executives want to enrich themselves at the expense of shareholders, either directly or by misrepresenting the company's prospects, individual shareholders have almost no hope of stopping them.
Some clues to look for here include excessively optimistic press releases,overly generous compensation or options grants, and frequent blaming of external circumstances for operational shortcomings.
WorldCom and Enron shares may have risen for years, but at the end of the day,shareholders received almost nothing. That's why,questionable management is the worst flaw a company can have.
5. Companies that require continued capital investment
Companies that constantly need to make additional capital investment to keep the business going are in this ideal category.
The main beneficiaries will be employees, management, suppliers, and government.In other words, money goes everywhere except to shareholders.
Summary:
These characteristics don't necessarily make a company a bad investment.Dow Chemical,for instance, has been a great long-term investment despite ongoing R&D and capital expenditures.
But a solid understanding of why these types of companies may be undesirable can help you identify whether a company that looks good on the surface might actually cost you money later.
When to Hold and When to Sell:
When to Hold and When to Sell:
Hold when: The price changes
Price changes, up or down, don't change a company's fundamentals.
If you sell simply because the stock's made you 50% in a short time, you're potentially throwing away a much bigger long-term profit.
If the price goes down on no news, the company becomes more attractive, not less. So, it doesn't make sense to sell simply based on price changes
Hold when: Temporary bad news comes
Bad news will come to every stock, sooner or later.
The company will miss estimates by pennies but fall by dollars. In itself, this isn't a reason to sell.
If the factors are temporary and in the long term the business is still strong, it still makes sense to hold, or even buy.
Sell when: The stock is overvalued
If a great stock's fairly valued, then it generally makes sense to not sell it.
You'll likely know that company better than any new company you add to your portfolio, and it's hard to find great companies at cheap prices, so you should naturally be reluctant to give up the ones you have.
But if the company becomes extremely overpriced, then it's time to jettison it,it will be unlikely to earn spectacular future returns.
Sell when: The business changes
If you're buying a great business, and suddenly you notice that the business isn't actually that great anymore, it can make sense to sell.
Sell when: There's a better stock to buy
If you're short on money but see an incredibly compelling stock that you absolutely must own, then sell a less attractive stock to raise funds.
But before you make the switch, make sure that you take into BROKERAGE costs and TAXES.
Often it won't make sense to sell a company in which you have large returns,pay the taxes, and put the proceeds into a marginally more attractive stock.
Eight items that impact the day's trading.
Eight items that impact the day's trading.
1. Overseas Market/Economic Action
Any major Positive/Negative news from foreign market impacts day's trading,
it is be best to wait till the dust settles,before going long on the position.
This will save you some money right from the start.
2. Economic Data
If a highly anticipated economic release is set to come out,may lead to market volatility.
It is best to wait for its release instead of jumping the gun and get SHOT!!!!!.
3. Futures Data
Investors should check to see if futures contracts are trading higher/lower.This will give them a better idea abt the prices ahead.
4. Buying at the Open
Buying or selling stock at the open of the market is not a good idea.
Because the opening hour of trading is the first time that most market participants have to enter or exit the stock, which can easily produce higher-than-average trading volume.
These market participants are reacting to the myriad of news stories that came out between yesterday's close and today's open, which includes major market news events like economic reports and political changes.
5. Midday Trading Lull
There is typically a drop off in trading (meaning the volume of transaction) at noon as most of the major news events are out in the market. During this lull, stock prices can often lose some ground.
When this happens, stocks can be purchased at a musch cheaper price at 1.30-2.30pm than they could at, say, 11am.
Again, this is important to know, as this can affect both entry and exit points.
6. Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
An analyst may give an intraday note that can have a significant impact on a given stock/sector.As a tip,remember to read financial articles or watch business reports on TV.
7. Company-Related News
if a Analyst gives a bullish/bearish article about a company throughout the trading day, this can have a HUGE impact on its stock.
8. Friday Trading
It means that stocks can/often sell off Friday afternoon during the last few hours of the trading day.
because normally, traders are looking to go home "flat" (without positions on their books).
Keep this in mind on Fridays if you are trying to find a favorable time to enter or exit a stock position.
The 5 Secrets to Buying Stocks
1. Buy cheap.
2. Buy quality.
3. Buy to hold.
4. Buy with minimal expenses.
5. Buy without leverage
The ways to preserve capital and earn steady returns.
1.Don't invest money you can't afford to lose,and don't borrow money to invest.
2.While leverage INCREASES your returns in good times,will MULTIPLY your losses in bad times.
Four steps to Stop Losing Money in ur portfolio.
1.Take shelter with dividends
Dividend payers typically sport strong and growing cash flows, which also happen to be the drivers of a growing stock price.
Investing in dividend-paying Companies and reinvesting those dividends has proven to be a Best market-beating strategy over the long time.
2.Invest in strong brands
Investing in unheard-of small caps is not the path to outstanding returns. Some of the best investment opportunities are supported by branded products and services you already know and use.
Use your knowledge as a lifelong consumer as a tool to boost your portfolio.
By seeking out companies with strong brands, secure dividends, you're practically halfway home to significantly lowering your portfolio's downside risk.
3.Avoid sky-high valuations
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that stocks with sky-high valuations have much further to fall. It is easy to get swept up in the greed-induced euphoria
When these high-growth, high-priced companies slip, Small and Poor investors are usually the last ones holding the bag.
4. Diversify
Investing in only a small number of companies might work for others, but running concentrated portfolios is good for the average investor.
You can achieve diversification with funds, individual stocks, or a mix of both.
A simple, defensive, and profitable set of strategies for Small Investors. So while there is NO way to eliminate losses in the market, you can STILL minimize your risk of loss and earn market-beating returns.
Technical And Fundamental Analysis
Advantages of Technical Analysis:
1)Recent Traded Volumes:
When an analyst/an investor is researching a stock,it's good to know what other investors think about it.
After all,they might have some additional insight into the company or they might be creating a trend.
One of the popular methods for gauging market sentiment is to look at the recently traded volume.
Large spikes of volume suggests the stock has caught attention of the traders and that the shares are under accumulation or distribution.
Volume indicators are popular tools among traders,because they can help to confirm whether other investors think same about the company.
Traders generally watch for the volume to increase as an identified trend gains momentum.
A sudden decrease in volume can suggest that traders are losing interest and that a reversal may be on its way.
Intraday charting is popular because it enables traders to watch for spikes in volume, which often comes with block trades and can be extremely helpful in knowing when large institutions are trading.
2) Tracking Short-Term Movements(Moving Averages)
when a stock goes through its 15/21-day moving average (either to the upside or the downside),it usually continues along that trend for a short period of time.
50 & 200-day moving averages are often used by TA's and FA investors to determine longer term breakout patterns.In other words, it is largely an indicator of what to expect in the coming term.
3) Tracking Reactions Over Time
Many fundamental analysts will look at a chart of a specific stock, industry, index or market to determine how that entity has performed over time when certain types of news (such as positive earnings or economic data) has been released.
Patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves, and the investors who were lured (or put off by) the news in question tend to react in a similar manner over time.
For example, if you take a look at the charts of various housing stocks, you'll often see that they react negatively when the Reserve bank chooses to forgo a cut in interest rates.
In short,by analyzing historical trends, investors can ballpark the possible reaction to a future event.
Disadvantages of Technical analysis:
1) It's History!
While it is possible to predict and anticipate certain movements based on patterns of a stock,charts cannot predict future positive/negative data,bcoz they are based on the past.
for eg:.If news leaks out that a company is about to release a good quarter results,investors will be able to take advantage of it and this good news will be apparent in the chart.
A chart cannot provide the investor with crucial long-term information such as the future direction of sales or profits.
2) The Crowd is Sometimes Wrong
it is possible that a stock that's being accumulated this week,may be under heavy distribution the next.
stocks that are being heavily sold this week may be under accumulation in the weeks to come.
Example of the "crowd is wrong" mentality can be found in the large amount of money that went into technology shares at the turn of the 2000(tech boom of 2000).
the money flow into these stocks and the stock markets on which they traded dried up almost overnight.
The charts did not indicate that such a harsh correction was coming.
3) Charts Don't Forecast Macro Trends/Future Events
Charts also are generally unable to accurately forecast macro-economic trends.
For example, it is nearly impossible to look at a Ongc's chart and predict whether govt plans to increase the prices of oil,or where crude oil prices are headed.
4) There is Subjectivity
When it comes to reading a chart, a certain amount of subjectivity comes into play.
Person may see a chart,feel that a stock is builiding a base, while another person may see more downside to it
When it comes to charting, only time will tell which way the markets will actually go.
Conclusion
Technical analysis can be a very valuable tool, but it is important to realize the benefits as well as the limitations before taking a plunge.
Technical And Fundamental Analysis has its merits when used as a compliment to others investing strategies.
Mutual Fund V/s Hedge Fund
The similarities:
Both mutual funds and hedge funds are managed portfolios.
This means,that a fund manager picks securities that he/she feels perform well and buys them.
then fund is divided and then sold to investors,who participate in the gains/losses of the holdings. The main advantage to investors is that they get instant diversification and professional management of their money.
The differences:
Hedge funds are managed much more aggressively than their mutual fund counterparts.
Hedge funds are able to take speculative positions in derivatives such as options and have the ability to short sell stocks.
it means that it's possible for hedge funds to make money when the market is falling.
Mutual funds,are not permitted to take these high-risk positions and are typically safer as a result.
Hedge funds are only available to a specific group of investors with high net worth.while any person can buy the mutual fund.
Four Big Investor Errors
Four Big Investor Errors
Whether you need to cut your losses or take a profit, read on for some simple tips you can use to help you decide whether to sell.
Great Stock, Battered Sector
Traders/Investors often face the difficult decision to sell a stock that they feel is the best in the market.
When a bear market occurres even Profitable companies with solid business structures will be severely devalued as well.
Lesson: If you own a stock in a sector that is being battered, you should consider selling because even good companies aren't safe from the roar of the "bear". Buying and selling stock today is easier than ever and relatively cheap.
Emotional Attachment
If you become emotionally attached to your stocks, you'll end up paying with losses.
Part of the reason good investors fall prey to this trap is that they put so much work into finding the "right" stock.
Investors should love a stock when it's making money; when it isn't, cut it loose!
Lesson: Emotional attachment to stocks is nothing more than human nature and wanting to be right. Do you want to be right - or rich?
Unrealized Profits
A profit isn't a profit until you've taken it off the table.
Many investors like to inflate their egos by viewing their stocks online and relishing how much money they've made. In reality, you haven't made a penny until you press the "sell" button.
When a stock is shooting for the moon, you may begin to sense it's out of control and you're beginning to wonder just how much higher it can possibly go.
This many be a good time to go for the "sell one-third" or "sell half" rule. This way, you can take some profit off the table and also keep some stock on the table so that if your stock does hit the moon, you won't be left kicking yourself for selling out of your position.
Lesson: Although the tax rate is substantially steeper for taking a profit if you've held the stock for less than a year, it's often better to have part of something than to risk having less - or nothing - once the year is through.
When to Sell
The real secret to knowing when to sell is to read, read, read - and then read some more. We're all busy, but take a few minutes out of the day or week to know what's going on with the market, with the economy and with your stocks in particular. Reading is like insurance: the more you know, the more you are protected.
Lesson: If you have your strategy firmly in place, one simple piece of information can give you the power you need to take action, take a profit or prevent a loss.
Conclusion
There is no exact science to knowing when to sell, only indicators that can give us clues. Learning from the mistakes of others is a great strategy for avoiding making those same mistakes yourself.
If a solid company has a downward spiraling stock price, look for clues as to why and find out what is happening within that sector.
Remember to keep a clear head when evaluating stocks and don't become emotionally attached to them. There are many factors that affect the financial markets, but if you're willing to put in the time and effort to read and research your investments you will be well prepared to take profits and avoid losses.
Interest rates
When the Central Bank(RBI) meets to decide on interest rates,it has significant effect on the stock markets.
When the Central Bank(RBI) is expected to bring interest rate cuts or increases,it is wise, as a stock investor, to be aware of the potential effects behind such decisions. Although the relationship between interest rates and the stock market is fairly indirect, the two tend to move in opposite directions.
A decrease in interest rates means that those people who want to borrow money enjoy an interest rate cut.
But this also means that those who are lending money, or buying securities such as bonds, have a decreased opportunity to make income from interest.
If we assume investors are rational, a decrease in interest rates will prompt investors to move money away from the bond market to the equity market.
At the same time, businesses will enjoy the ability to finance expansion at a cheaper rate, thereby increasing their future earnings potential, which, in turn, leads to higher stock prices. Investors and economists alike view lower interest rates as catalysts for expansion.
The unifying effect of an interest rate cut is the psychological effect it has on investors and consumers; they see it as a benefit to personal and corporate borrowing, which in turn leads to greater profits and an expanding economy.
Forces Behind Interest Rates
An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money.it is the compensation for the service and risk of lending money.
Lenders and Borrowers
The lender of money is taking a risk that the borrower may not payback the loan. Thus, interest provides also a certain compensation for bearing risk.
Coupled with the risk of default is the risk of inflation. When you lend money now, the prices of goods and services may go up by the time you are paid back your money, whose original purchasing power would have decreased. Thus, interest protects against future rises in inflation. A lender such as a bank uses the interest to process account costs as well.
The borrowers pay interest because they must pay a price for gaining the ability to spend now as opposed to having to wait years and years to save up enough money.
Interest can thus be considered a cost for one entity and income for another. Interest is the opportunity cost of keeping your money as cash under your mattress as opposed to lending. If you borrow money, then the interest you have to pay is less than the cost of forgoing the opportunity to have the money in the present.
How Interest Rates Are Determined
Supply and Demand
Interest rate levels are a factor of the supply and demand of credit(for eg.credit = home loans,vehicle loans), an increase in the demand for credit(loans) will raise interest rates, while a decrease in the demand for credit will decrease them.
Conversely, an increase in the supply of credit will reduce interest rates while a decrease in the supply of credit will increase them.
The supply of credit(loans) is increased by an increase in the amount of money made available to borrowers.
For example, when you open a bank account, you are actually lending money to the bank.Depending on the kind of account you open , the bank can use that money for its business and investment activities.
In other,words the bank can lend out that money to other customers. The more banks can lend, the more credit(loans) is available to the economy. And as the supply of credit(loans) increases, the price of borrowing (interest) decreases.
Inflation
Inflation will also affect interest rate levels. The higher the rate of inflation, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This occurs because lenders will demand higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in the purchasing power of the money they will be repaid in the future.
Government
The government has a say in how interest rates are affected. The Central banks (the US Fed or RBI) often comes with out announcements about how monetary policy will affect interest rates.
The Central banks(Call or money market) rate, or the rate that institutions charge each other for extremely short-term loans, affects the interest rate that banks set on the money they lend; the rate then eventually trickles down into other short-term lending rates.
When the government buys more securities, banks are injected with more money than they can use for lending, and the interest rates then decrease. When the government sells securities, money from the banks is drained for the transaction, rendering less funds at the banks' disposal for lending, forcing a rise in interest rates.
Conclusion
As interest rates are a major factor of the income you can earn by lending money, of bond pricing,and of the amount you will have to pay to borrow money, it is important you understand how prevailing interest rates change: primarily by the forces of supply and demand, which are also affected by inflation and monetary policy.
Excerpts,contents Re-edited by me and with contents courtesy-Investopedia
Operators
Operators: Friend or Foe?
Have you ever wonder, When u place an order with the stockbroker and within seconds it is executed, how this is possible.?
This is where the Operator uncle comes in!!..yes heard right Operators. They cannot be avoided, but if you know how they work, you can watch them buying and selling in the market.
The Operator is like a wholesaler. Customers come and go all day long, some selling stocks, others with new purchases from 10.00 am until 3.30 pm every trading day . The difference is that this wholesaler has only one item to trade. These items are continually bought and sold. The only responsibility that the wholesaler has, it that he must keep his doors open during market hours, and he is responsible for setting the prices, second by second and hour by hour. He makes his money by buying stock at a lower price and selling at a higher price. He makes his money on the difference between the two, which is his profit. This may be few Rupees or in paises, but when you are dealing in lakhs of shares it is a vast amount of money.
what happens when a customer comes in for a large buy order (Block/Bulk Deal)?
if there are insufficient goods (or stocks) available. A normal wholesaler in the real business would buy in more goods from the manufacturer to fulfill the order.
Our Operator Uncle does not have this option, so he has to encourage people to sell to him, otherwise he will have nothing to offer his Big customers. So what does he do? He moves his prices down side,i.e.yes at Lower circuit.!!
It also explains why markets fall faster than they rise - in the fall the wholesaler is in a hurry to get new supplies of goods, on the way back up he is taking his time making profits. This technique is known as 'shaking the tree'.
The Operator is of course the market maker. They are professional traders who buy and sell. Some are large international banking organizations, some household names, others you will never hear of.
As professional traders they sit in the middle of the market, looking at both sides of the market. They will know precisely the balance of supply and demand at any point of time.
They also have the unique advantage of being able to set their prices accordingly.
They use every piece of news, world event, rumour and gossip to manipulate prices and the markets, there is one piece of information that they cannot hide.i.e Volume. It shows the activity of operators during the particular time period, that’s why you should not take Volume lightly!
what is a recession?
what is a recession, and what does it mean for stocks?
The answers may surprise you....
What goes up must come down.
A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and a trough. Recessions typically last between six and 18 months, and they're a perfectly natural part of the business cycle. A recession does not mean that economic growth has stopped, it merely means that it has slowed down.
To determine whether the economy is in recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzes changes in factors such as gross domestic product, personal income, employment, industrial production, and retail sales volume. There is no fixed rule for how the different indicators are weighed.
It takes time for the NBER to collect and analyze this economic data. By the time it's determined that the country is in a recession, odds are that the economy is already close to recovering.
Stocks can also go up in a recession?
Since 1945, there have been 11 recessions lasting an average of 10 months each. But according to a recent article from Hulbert, during these recessions, the stock market actually rose seven times and the average market return during all 11 recessions was 3%!
Meanwhile, quality companies with strong balance sheets, solid free cash flow, and shareholder-friendly management actually prospered during this period.
A drop in the markets can be frightening, but it shouldn't make you sell. You buy a stock, it's because you think that the stock is worth more than its current price. If the stock falls, but nothing else has changed, then it has become a better deal because it's cheaper. So you should be thinking about buying, not selling, at times like these.
Successful value investors like Warren Buffett act this way. He doesn't panic and dump shares when the market falls, but rather looks upon the drop as a buying opportunity.
Concentrate on finding the types of stocks that will perform well in any economic environment.
Futures and Hedge
Futures and Hedge
For eg
If you buy 100 Infosys Oct'07 futures for say Rs 1900 and you expect go to 2,000 - you will make a profit of ( 100*100) = 10,000.
However - u will lose a HUGE amount if Infosys tanks to Rs 1600 ( 100*300= 30,000) .
You can hedge yourself by buying a PUT option of infosys at say 1950 at Rs 30 at the cost of Rs 3000 .
The profit that you make when Infosys touches 2000 will be (10,000 - 3000).=7000
However - if the Infosys tanks to Rs 1600 - then your Put Option will be worth ( (1950-1600)*100 less premium paid 3000 ) = 32000 profit,while u wud have limited your futures 30000 loss with a risk free profit of 2000
Same can be done by selling a stock futures ( = Short Futures) and then buying a CALL option to hedge against price of shares going up.
If stock tanks - you make a lot of money, since u already sold futures at high rate.
Avoid buying or selling futures without a hedge,as it can/will lead to bankruptcy.
Put-call ratio (PCR)
Put call ratio (PCR), which is the number of put options divided by the number of call options, is a popular sentiment indicator of option traders worldwide.
For starters, a put option allows the buyer the right, but not the obligation to sell a contract to the writer (seller), while a call option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation to buy a contract from the writer.
When an investor buys a put option, it means he expects the markets to fall.
When an investor buys a call option, he expects the market to rise.
So, a rising PCR would mean investors are buying more puts or reducing calls.
And a falling PCR would indicate that call options are being added and put options being reduced.
This plunge reflects a bullish sentiment, as the put-call ratio is one of the best gauges to judge oversold (too bearish) or overbought (too bullish) zones.
Open interest (OI) and stock price
The End of Day(EOD) Open interest is a signal.
In a bullish market, OI tends to be high, bcoz there has been an large no.of interest in the F&O segment than cash
Close to Settlement/Expiry, High OI suggests that there will be high carry-over to next month and which shows bullish market.
If open interest is rising and stock price is also rising, bulls are adding positions
If open interest is falling and stock price is also falling, bulls are booking profits.
If open interest is rising and stock price is falling, bears are shorting.
If open interest is falling and stock price is rising, short covering is taking place.
Spot volumes:A rising price shud always be backed by high volumes,it means there is no end to demand as price rises.
At near market peak,spot volumes usually decline and start thinning out-this signals the demand is declining.
Breadth: A market where breadth is strong is a healthy bull mkt.
Near mkt peak, trading interest tends to decline, and declining shares start to outnumber advancing ones.
Depth:As price flucuate,so do trading volumes. In a mkt with a good depth,a price fluctuation will not lead to a instant loss of volume.
For eg.A Rs.100 share sees a volumes of 200,000.
If prices rises to Rs110,or drops to Rs.90,and it volumes remain constant,we say that it is deep market.
Near a mkt peak, small price changes leads to large volume changes.