On Rupees & Won:

The Rally That Wasn't Having counted five waves down in many markets, I made some general comments about the different types of rallies that markets makes off of lows. That most markets did in fact pause their declines for the past two days following that five-wave move bolsters our belief that we are likely fairly close to being on-the-mark with our analysis of the current positions of these markets within the wave counts. And yet, all that these markets could muster following the five waves down was to pause and look around and mount feeble rallies with shallow retracements. By all accounts, based on this price action and wave structure, most markets must still be in their fifth waves to the downside.













On Rupees & Won:

We haven't looked at the Indian rupee in a few weeks, so it's appropriate to get caught up with this market. I'm showing the Korean won versus the dollar as well, as these charts and wave counts are very similar. The move up in both the rupee and the won look like fifth waves in progress. Our prior wave count in the rupee considered that the fourth wave was ongoing, but recent action demands placing (4) at the December low, which was a perfect retracement to the previous 4 low in November. Both the rupee and the won are now right at the levels of their November highs. The charts show the dollar's appreciation versus these currencies. Noting that these charts are on log scale, the slide in both the rupee and the won is accelerating in a climactic fifth wave. We'll keep an eye on these two markets going forward, but the near-term prognosis for the health of these currencies is not good, since this fifth wave does not appear to be nearly complete by any possible wave count.