India Eco: Major Slowdown in Investment Cycle Ahead

Investment cycle peaked in F2008:
Based on the trend in fundraising activity, it appears this capex could have increased to 37% of GDP in F2008 from 35.9% in F2007. The key driver of this improvement is the sharp pick up in private corporate sector investments to 16.1% of GDP in F2008 from the bottom of 5.2% in F2001.

Clear signs of slowdown over the last few months:
A number of indicators show that investments growth has decelerated over the last six months. Capital goods output growth has slowed to 6.8% during the three months ending June 2008, from the peak of 24.2% for the three months ending October 2007. Similarly, the trend for aggregate corporate fund raising has also suffered over the last six months.

Macro environment remains challenging:
We believe the combined impact of slowing domestic consumption, higher domestic cost of capital and reduced capital access from international capital markets will result in further major slowdown in investment cycle over the next 12 months.

Recovery unlikely until 2010:
We believe that even if some banks start to cut lending rates in the next six months, the overall borrowing costs will remain high until last quarter of 2009. Similarly, we do not see a quick revival in capital inflows over the next 18 months. We expect the aggregate investment to GDP ratio will decline to 32% in F2010 from 37% in F2008.

Repeat of mid-1990s cycle?
In the 1990s, the private corporate capex to GDP ratio increased to a peak of 10.4% in F1996 from 6.1% in F1994, but later declined gradually to 5.2% in F2001. We believe the current macro economic trend has many similarities to the 1990s cycle, but the duration of the down cycle will depend on the global macro environment particularly for emerging markets.